Arsonists warn of conflagration

Israel assassinated senior Hezbollah Commander Fuad Shukr and Hamas Political Chief Ismail Haniyeh in separate attacks on July 30 and July 31. Shukr was targeted in a building south of Beirut, and Haniyeh was killed inside his temporary Tehran residence, where he was staying after attending the inauguration ceremony of President Masoud Pezeshkian.

Washington and its European allies seemed unconcerned about the escalating tensions when the two high-profile attacks happened. But a palpable shift emerged in their demeanor and words once it became evident that Iran intends to hold the Israeli regime accountable for violating significant “red lines.”

In the past few days, Western states have engaged regional countries in a desperate bid to persuade Iran to refrain from attacking Israel, or at least to temper its response. They have also deployed media outlets to launch propaganda campaigns aimed at undermining the legitimacy of any military action by Iran.

It seems, however, that these efforts have so far fallen short. “Iran does not doubt that Israel must be punished,” said Iran’s Foreign Ministry Spokesman on Monday, adding that contrary to what the West says, the only way to rein in Israel is to make the regime face the consequences of its terrorist actions.

West might not seek war with Iran, but it is moving toward it

The flurry of diplomatic calls to Iran’s Acting Foreign Minister Ali Baqeri Kani and the constant calls for restraint from Western leaders have prompted widespread questioning. Many are asking why the West, particularly Washington, allowed Israel to carry out an action virtually guaranteed to provoke a strong and potentially dangerous response from Iran.

Observers wonder if the U.S. is deliberately misleading the world by claiming it doesn’t want war with Iran and its allies, or if it’s simply failing to understand that just as the assassination of Archduke Ferdinand in 1914 ignited World War I, the killing of one of the most prominent Palestinian leaders during his stay in the country that’s the backbone of the Resistance could unleash a cascade of violence.

Washington’s first attempt to answer those questions came when Secretary of State Antony Blinken claimed the U.S. was not “aware of or involved in” the death of Haniyeh – an assertion that many found difficult to believe.

“It’s impossible to know for sure what transpired behind closed doors between the U.S. and Israel,” Amir Ali Abolfath, an expert on international relations and American affairs, told the Tehran Times. “We don’t have direct access to intelligence exchanges between Israel and the U.S. nor do we accompany Biden and Netanyahu during their private meetings. But it is still highly unlikely that Washington was unaware of Israel’s plan to assassinate Haniyeh in Tehran. Americans might have even aided Israel in the attack because they aim to weaken Hamas and omit any force that would pose a challenge when determining who should govern Gaza after the war ends,” he added.

Abolfath, however, rejected the notion that the U.S. wants war with Iran, explaining, “Israel desires to draw the U.S. into a conflict with Iran, similar to what happened in Iraq and Afghanistan. But Washington has learned from those costly experiences and understands that a war with Iran would have far more devastating consequences.”

Even though both Washington and Iran do not seek to start a war, American politicians’ support for Israel might eventually lead to one, the expert added. “I think it is incorrect to say that the U.S. allows Israel to do everything it wants. But at the same time, nothing Israel has committed would have been possible without U.S. support. Israel acts recklessly because it knows that at the end of the day, Americans are committed to defending Israel’s security.”

More analysts have spoken up in recent days to warn the U.S. about the dangers of miscalculating Iran’s responses to Israeli aggressions. While pundits acknowledge that Iran may prefer to avoid a full-blown war with Israel, they emphasize that this does not mean Iran will tolerate violations of its red lines. In other words, Iran is willing to defend its interests, even if it means risking a confrontation.

“Regardless of Israel’s desire to reestablish deterrence, leaders in Jerusalem and Washington must still think through how Iran and Hezbollah are most likely to respond,” wrote the former special assistant to President Barack Obama in an article published by the Washington Institute, mirroring other voices that believe the U.S. should pull the plug on Israel, at least occasionally, if it doesn’t want Netanyahu to drag it into a regional confrontation with Iran.